Victim of Communism

  • 24 Posts
  • 2.23K Comments
Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • I don’t doubt the congestion is real, as consumption - especially data consumption - rapidly expands to fill its container.

    I might suggest that some of the early adopters and insiders are receiving subsidy rates in order to goose Elon’s investor briefs on adoption. And the folks on the back end who are eating the exploding prices exist to pad Musk’s proposed future revenue estimates.

    “We added 10,000 people a day for the last 30 days, even as we raised rates from $10/day to $100/day!” tells a very attractive story to investors without tipping your hand and revealing what the next 30 days will look like. But it also becomes a kind-of self-fulfilling prophecy, when it results in banks giving you another hundred billion dollars in low-interest credit to expand your network.


  • It’s sort of the problem akin to robbing Ft. Knox. Most people just don’t have a bag big enough to carry it all away. The Chinese economy is one of the few big enough to support the kind of multi-billion dollar data centers that can accumulate and process data at scale.

    But even beyond that, a lot of the modern underlying technology for AI is in the process of relating the data and inferring the resulting answer. Where Altman’s whiners want to claim theft is in the raw data they’ve (illegally) scraped and compiled. Where Chinese firms have innovated is in the speed and accuracy of aggregating the data and returning useful results.

    One reason why Altman keeps saying he needs another trillion dollars for hardware and electricity is that his models are shit and his approach is largely brute-force. His overseas rivals - DeepSeek, Moonshot, Stepfun, etc - have invested far more in the actual logical design of their systems. The end result is the kind of video rendering that rendered Sora obsolete almost as soon as it was released. And the kind of advanced coding that’s scaring the shit out of the engineers at Claude and Gemini.




  • This is why satelite internet is a dead end.

    Idk if I’d call it a dead end so much as a service of last resort. There’s definitely utility in a global network of always-on wireless communication. But because it’s expensive to deploy and saturated quickly, you can’t operate at the volume of a wired network or local wireless system.

    So why even entertain this detour if not for war machines - one niche where satellites are actually better.

    I think you’ve answered your own question. The incremental value of satellites as part of a weapons system far outstrips normal business applications (nevermind consumer markets).

    But you still run into the same constraints at a certain scale. Even if your transmission system is unassailable, it cannot support the volume of traffic of wired connections. So you’re still going to see drone pilots with enormous spools of fiberoptic wire moving along the battlefront.