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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 17th, 2023

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  • Gaming actually provides a real benefit for people, and resources spent on it mostly linearly provide that benefit (yes some people are addicted or etc, but people need enriching activities and gaming can be such an activity in moderation).

    AI doesn’t provide much benefit yet, outside of very narrow uses, and its usefulness is mostly predicated on its continued growth of ability. The problem is pretrained transformers have stopped seeing linear growth with injection of resources, so either the people in charge admit its all a sham, or they push non linear amounts of resources at it hoping to fake growing ability long enough to achieve a new actual breakthrough.







  • I haven’t read this article, but the one place machine learning is really really good, is narrowing down a really big solution space where false negatives and false positives are cheap. Frankly, I’m not sure how you’d go about training an AI to solve math problems, but if you could figure that out, it sounds roughly like it would fit the bill. You just need human verification as the final step, with the understanding that humans will rule out like 90% of the tries, but if you only need one success that’s fine. As a real world example machine learning is routinely used in astronomy to narrow down candidate stars or galaxies from potentially millions of options to like 200 that can then undergo human review.






  • I’m not saying AI can’t be disruptive. I’m saying we aren’t there. The steady progress you think you are seeing is bought with increased processing power, the science isn’t advancing steadily, it advances in unpredictable jumps. Because the performance gained with processing power is reaching its peak, we’ll need at least another one of those unpredictable jumps for it to get to a state that will do what the comment I was responding to was claiming. It could be another 50 years before that happens, or it could be tomorrow.



  • The current AI boom is all based on a single paper from about 7 years ago, and has been achieved by just throwing more and more computing power at it. There has been basically no meaningful architecture improvements in that time and we are already seeing substantial fall off from throwing more power at the problem. I don’t think its a given at all that we are close to the kind of disruption you are predicting.