The catarrhine who invented a perpetual motion machine, by dreaming at night and devouring its own dreams through the day.

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Joined 9 months ago
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Cake day: January 12th, 2024

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  • I gave the subject a check. From Tom’s Hardware, industry predictions are like:

    Year Capacity (in TB)
    2022 1~22
    2025 2~40
    2028 6~60
    2031 7~75
    2034 8~90
    2037 10~100

    Or, doubling roughly each 4y. Based on that the state of art disks would 500TB roughly in 2040. Make it ~2050 for affordable external storage.

    However note that this is extrapolation over a future estimation, and estimation itself is also an extrapolation over past trends. Might as well guess what I’m going to have for lunch exactly one year for now, it’ll be as accurate as that.

    To complicate things further currently you have competition between two main techs, spinning disks vs. solid state. SSD might be evolving on a different pace, and as your typical SSD has less capacity it might even push the average for customers back a bit (as they swap HDDs with SSDs with slightly lower capacity).


  • In modern language the way language is used and perceived determines its meaning and not its origins.

    This is technically correct but misleading in this context, given that it falsely implies that the original meaning (doubling transistor density every 2y) became obsolete. It did not. Please take context into account. Please.

    Furthermore you’re missing the point. The other comment is not just picking on words, but highlighting that people bring “it’s Moore’s Law” to babble inane predictions about the future. That’s doubly true when people assume (i.e. make shit up) that “doubling every 2y” applies to other things, and/or that it’s predictive in nature instead of just o9bservational. Cue to the OP.



  • My prediction:

    It’ll reach a profitability peak some months from now, then start dropping again. That drop will prompt Reddit Inc. to introduce further changes to the platform, and they’ll get a new profitability peak - smaller than the older one. This pattern will repeat a few times, until the focus is back from “maximising profits” to “cut down the losses”.

    Investors will be pissed and try to find someone to blame, potentially even suing Greedy Pigboy - seeking to get their money back, as the amount that they invested in the platform became nothing. This will fail, but Greedy Pigboy’s reputation will be ruined among investors, just like it is among users.

    In the meantime, users will flee in flocks from the platform. Most of them will go to Discord, with only a handful hitting Lemmy - as by now Lemmy already has its own culture aside from the one of the “leftover” in Reddit. (I expect that “fuck off back to Reddit” will become a common scene here.)

    In the meantime, it’ll be an open secret that the very changes promoting short-term net profit caused long-term losses. Because it’ll be stuff like:

    • Targetted ads further encouraging users to use ad blockers, and to avoid the app altogether.
    • Disruption of the mobile site to “encourage” users to use the app. Some will use it for a while, then ditch it altogether.
    • Making ads less and less distinguishable from genuine content. You click it once by accident, get pissed but give Reddit some money; you do it twice, and you leave.
    • Removing features only used by a small fraction of the userbase - but the fraction differs each time, so users in general get pissed.
    • Removing the ability to customise the old.reddit page of each subreddit with CSS, under some bullshit claim like “someone might abuse it, think on the children!”, but the actual reason will be brand awareness.
    • Introducing changes that, while desirable for larger subreddits, either neglect or outright harm smaller subreddits. Even if the main reason why people stay in Reddit is the smaller subs.
    • Copying features from social media platforms strictu sensu. That’ll promote Reddit in the short term, but in the long term it becomes pointless to stay in Reddit instead of a bigger platform (like Facebook).


  • Then as you ask “provide sources.”, it says simply “Source: Tech Review Websites”. If this came from an actual person I would genuinely ask it “do you take me for gullible trash?”.

    It’s still somewhat useful, due to Google Search crumbling away into nothingness, if you ask “link me five sites with info about [topic]”.



  • I wish that I had enough drawing skills to do this, but:

    Imagine obese (morbidly so) versions of Mario and Pikachu. Both with blood on their mouths, and faces that strongly remind Goya’s “Saturn Devouring His Son”. Mario holds half of the body of a dead Tanzee (a Palworld pal), and is strongly implied to be eating it; Pikachu does it with the Yuzu logo, or something else.

    There are only three things written in the whole picture.

    • Top right corner: Nintendo’s logo.
    • Centre bottom: “we were starving”, followed by “私たち二人は飢えていました。” (ditto; might as well check the grammar as I don’t speak JP, I used a machine translator).

  • r/TheDahmerCase has been banned from Reddit

    Yes, we reported that. We’ve done nothing wrong, only noticed the 2500 sudden members today and someone else had the same issue today and then their sub was also banned, so it’s not just us. And we were both banned for ‘spam’. I think Reddit has been hacked.

    Reddit has negative respect towards the small communities, eh. The same ones that used to make that place fun, in contrast with overgrown shitholes like r/[we try to be]funny.




  • We’re talking about two different problems.

    The one that I’m talking about is Reddit admins being clearly hostile towards the community, including mods, and the mods still being willing to lick the admins’ boots, instead of migrating their comms to another site. Even at the expense of the userbases of the subreddits that they moderate.

    Here in Lemmy this shit does not roll - both because it’s easier to migrate comms across instances, and because the userbase is mostly composed of people with low tolerance towards admin abuse.

    Now, regarding the problem that you’ve spotted: yes, it is a problem here that boils down to

    1. Lack of transparency: plenty mods and admins here have a nasty tendency to enforce hidden rules - because actually writing those rules down would piss off the userbase.
    2. Excessive polarisation and oversimplification of some topics, mostly dealing with recent events. (Such as the one that we both were talking about not too long ago.)

    I am really not sure on how to compare the extent of both issues in Lemmy vs. Reddit, nor how to address them here, and thus to get rid of the problem that you’re noticing.


  • For a casual observer, who was never engaged with that platform, it might actually look like Reddit is back to normal, based on a casual glance at the activity.

    You only notice the cracks leaking water when you actually look closer, and you remember that the stone dam didn’t have so many of them. The surge on bot activity, the lower level of discourse in the comments, the further concentration of activity into larger subs, the content feeling more and more repetitive…




  • To be a moral agent, your actions towards others need to have consequences for yourself - be those consequences direct, social, emotional, or something else. And intelligence on itself doesn’t provide those consequences.

    The nearest that you could do, with AGI alone, would be to hardcode it with ethical principles, but that’s another matter. (I’m saying this because people often conflate ethics and morality, even if they’re two different cans of worms.)





  • I was focusing mostly on your incorrect claim about account ages. The reliability of the information (speculation vs. solid info) is another can of worms.

    The reason why you see mostly speculation is because nobody knows how the algo work, except people inside Reddit itself. The most that people can do is to analyse patterns, and come up with a hypothesis explaining it; and while doing so by subjective means is by no means optimal, it is better than nothing.

    Where’s your critical thinking ?

    Critical thinking is to neither change the goalposts once people contradict your claim, nor to conflate hypotheses with gullibleness-based argumentation (“I swear it’s true bro”).