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Cake day: August 2nd, 2023

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  • The effect is mostly from the total number of computer users increasing.

    That is, the total number of “tech-savvy” users keeps increasing (https://datausa.io/profile/cip/computer-science-110701) but the number of “non-tech-savvy” computer users has absolutely exploded (https://semiconalpha.substack.com/p/global-semiconductor-sales-increase) (that actually undercounts computers since every dollar in 2020 buys you much more computer power than a dollar in 1987)

    You had to pass a nerd gauntlet just to get online in the 80’s or 90’s that meant that everyone you met online had also passed that gauntlet and was tech savvy. Even if you looked in the social usenet groups, a lot of non-technical users were just filtered out. So it looked like everyone was tech savvy but that’s because we were sampling a tiny, tech-savvy portion of the population.

    Now anyone can get online. The tech savvy gen-zers are still there but their hidden in a sea of non-technical users. If you go to places like Github or Hackernews (or even more specifically technical fora), you’ll find plenty of enthusiastic young people poking at technology and trying to make it better. They no longer have to mess around with autoexec.bat and config.sys to get their mouse working but they can (and do) get a bunch of Jupyter notebooks and start playing around with Tensorflow.

    A great modern example of this is 3-D printing. Modern 3-D printers suck. If you’re a big company you can get super expensive 3-D printers that take up giant rooms and need a team of experts to run. If you’re a home user you can get a cheap FDM printer but you best be prepared to tinker with it. The first thing most people do with their Ender is print mods for their Ender. Bambu Labs is a big improvement but they also attract a lot of users who at least could mod their printer https://forum.bambulab.com/c/bambu-lab-x1-series/user-mods/19

    Some day we may have little boxes like in “Diamond Age”. Kids in the future may not even know about crap like bed adhesion and stringing and they’ll concentrate on whatever the new problems are revealed once the current ones are taken care of.



  • I think that true “tech-savvyness” isn’t really a generational thing.

    Some people are just really curious about how stuff works. When they see something they aren’t satisfied with, “Just do it.” or “Shit just works.” They want to know how and why it works. When you hand those people a computer, machine or flower they’ll poke at it and try to understand it better.

    It’s not clear that typing skills are actually needed for that.

    I max out at around 80-100 WPM but I only sustain that when I’m transcribing something. When I need to learn about technology, it’s much more about reading than typing. When I actually need to do some coding, I spend much more time staring at the screen and looking up stuff on Stackoverlow than I do actually typing.

    Most of Z is not savvy at all, just like with every generation. And just like with every generation, some of them will push the envelope of technology. I doubt that lack of typing will slow those folks down.





  • It’s hard to draw meaningful conclusions form a single 4 year period. There have been several instances of corruption (and significant externalized costs) in private firms that went on for much longer than 4 years.

    I agree that there is a lot of corruption in government but there’s a long gap between that and no accountability. We see various forms of government accountability on a regular basis; politicians lose elections, they get recalled, and they sometimes even get incarcerated. We also have multiple systems designed to allow any citizen to influence government.

    None of these systems and safeguards are anywhere close to perfect but it must be better than organizations that don’t even have these systems in the first place.


  • What makes governments any more susceptible to corruption than a private organization?

    I’m not actually talking about governments having absolute control. That’s a pretty extreme scenario to jump to from from the question of if it’s better for a private company or a government to control search.

    Right now we think Google is misusing that data. We can’t even get information on it without a leak. The government has a flawed FOIA system but Google has nothing of the sort. The only way we’re protected from corruption at Google (and historically speaking several other large private organization) is when the government steps in and stops them.

    Governments often handle corruption poorly but I can rattle of many cases where governments managed to reduce corruption on their own (ie without requiring a revolution). In many cases the source of that corruption was large private organizations.




  • I can certainly agree that there is no evidence to suggest that China is “one of the most polluting countries in the world”. I haven’t seen a shred of evidence to support that claim. It is entirely baseless.

    On the other hand, the claim that China’s per capita pollution is lower than that of most industrialized nations is supported by evidence. It is the best evidence we have too, unless you’ve discovered a better metric in the last few days.

    A claim that imperfect evidence is equivalent to no evidence is baseless and will lead to erroneous conclusions.


  • I agree that CO2 is an imperfect measure and you don’t seem to be making the claim that CO2 has an SNR of 0 (ie it carries no information at all). We seem to agree on the core of your central three paragraphs so I won’t comment on them.

    You’ve stated multiple times now that you don’t know any better measures than CO2. So even if there are other measures they’re just as bad or worse. Given this lack of any better metric, on what verifiable evidence are you basing any of your conclusions?

    I’m assuming based on the time you responded to me that you are in China so maybe you can elucidate me on how I get this wrong.

    The same way you got your conclusions about China’s pollution wrong, by misapplying evidence and jumping to conclusions.

    It’s interesting that you should phrase your question that way. The cheap answer would be to point out that you’re not using “elucidate” correctly. You’re missing a preposition. It’s also odd to use “get” instead of “got” here. A corrected version of your sentence might be, “…maybe you can elucidate to me how I got this wrong.” It’s cheap in the sense that personal attacks are easy and do little to advance a conversation. It would be just as silly of me to use your grammar error as evidence that you’re a foreign national as it is for you to use the timing of my posts as evidence of my location.

    You might then suspect that I might still be a foreigner who’s studied too much English grammar. That would be correct. It turns out that when I speak my native language, other native speakers can sometimes pinpoint the exact district in Vienna where I was born. These days, none of my neighbors speak German. They love the Sox and rock their “Dunkies”.

    Just as in the case of estimating China’s pollution levels, cavalier use of evidence leads to erroneous conclusions.


  • OK It sounds like there’s only one metric we can use to evaluate how much China pollutes.

    The metric is widely used by various academics, government agencies and independent organizations. We have no better metric and that metric says that China doesn’t pollute that much.

    That leaves 2 possibilities; the metric actually provides no information at all or it still provides some information.

    If it provides no information AND we don’t have anything that does (ie a better metric) that means we literally have absolutely no information at all about how much China pollutes at all. That means we can’t make any intelligent claims about how much China pollutes or how much they’re fudging the number because there’s no comparison to make.

    If it does provide some information we’re left with a situation where all of the imperfect information supports the claim that China doesn’t pollute much.

    Either way, the evidence as you’ve classified it, doesn’t support the claim that China is, “one of the planet’s most polluting countries,” which was the original claim of this thread. It is, by definition, a baseless conjecture.






  • Not sure why you’re so hung up on dogs or 2 months. The thread still shows up in searches and you’re clearly getting updates on it. Unless there’s some evidence to suggest the information in this thread is now obsolete, there’s no reason not to respond.

    @esteeyou@lemmy.world made a claim and provided evidence. Unless there’s better evidence to the contrary it’s reasonable to accept the claim. My children sometimes still respond to arguments with, “Nuh uh.” I generally expect more from adults.